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Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. I would never vote any other way. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. He pissed off a lot of people. They need to take care of the older people here. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. To accept cookies, click continue. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. In addition to Florida Gov. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I think all politicians are crooks. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. I quit voting once out of the union.. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. I think thats what the world needed. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Im not happy with the way things are now. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. People need to get a job, get out and work. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Republican Gov. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Thus it would appear that bellwether. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. The counties are also mostly small and rural. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. Our roads need to be fixed. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. "If. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. . But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. I got a life. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. This claim is basically absurd. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Were a service industry-oriented area. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. He loves this country. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Nothing is free, Hawker said. You have to take the lesser of two evils. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Here's why. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Since the 2020 elections, there also have been 879 newly-registered voters bringing the total to 30,248, Board of Elections director Carol Ann Hill told The Epoch Times. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? At least Biden is honest, he said. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. It will cycle through. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Its crazy. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Its just stupid, she said. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I dont listen to the news. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. He is his own worst enemy.. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. He says Democratic Gov. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. 'I Should Start Voting'. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Its just not that great, Paul said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. Medicare is becoming a joke. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Their fear is real, mine is. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company.